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Forecast discussion, Wed., Sept. 6,
morning
Today's Update
Background ozone levels this morning are higher than they
typically have been in areas away from the ship channel (in the 40s
at Conroe). Smoke from the wild fires in eastern Texas and Louisiana
is reducing visibility this morning. Temperatures are much cooler
than they have been in over a week (70s!!). Winds are
east-northeasterly this morning and rather strong. The winds will
continue out of the east today and be brisk at times. Yesterday's
convection should not repeat today, due to more stable stable air
moving in the area, and also due to a very deep layer of dry air
aloft. The dry air appears from the water vapor loop to be
associated with a tropopause fold. Therefore, skies should be
cloud-free most of the day, but remain rather opaque due to smoke
from the wild fires. A decent moist layer aloft and steep lapse rate
still remains, so a buildup of late afternoon cumulus can not be
ruled out. Chances of precip is less than 10%. Due to the surface
winds, the highest levels of pollutants will be found in the western
edge of the surface network.
Max temperature Upper 90s
Quick Look at Tomorrow
Winds shall continue out of the east, and continue to advect the
smoke from the fires this way. An area of low pressure off the
Louisiana coast at this time will drift westward as well. The day
will most likely start off the same as today, but the chances of
precipitation will be greater in the late afternoon as the low
pressure gets nearer.
Multi-Day Outlook
Strong high pressure moving south along the eastern third of the
US will cause the synoptic winds to continue to veer toward the
southeast. In addition, the low over the Gulf will slowly drift
westward. The models are all in agreement showing a wet period along
the coast the next few days.
Forecaster Karl Schulze
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