Because extensive operations are not planned for today, the forecast will focus on the longer-range outlook.

Winds at the surface are generally light from the northeast, a morning wind direction we haven't seen yet and which favors the early morning plume from the Ship Channel drifting slowly southwest and then drifting slowly north again over the city as the light southerly winds aloft mix down. Unusually rapid ozone increases during the morning are possible near the center of the city depending on the distribution of thunderstorms.

Speaking of which, the thunderstorms over the Gulf are as widespread as they were yesterday, but not as numerous. There are light showers about; deeper convection should develop with the bay/gulf breeze convergence late this morning and spread inland across the city during the early afternoon. Chances of showers cleaning up the air this afternoon are 80%.

Max temperature lower 90s, higher well inland away from the convection and gulf breeze.

General drying trend is continued by all models. Tomorrow scattered showers along the bay/gulf breeze are likely, but light large-scale winds and a better chance of a land breeze imply high ozone potential in between the showers. Showers are also likely tomorrow over the piney woods, but the inland penetration of showers probably won't be as great tomorrow as today or yesterday.

The met and chem models agree that boundary layer trajectories will originate from the southern Mississippi River valley starting on Saturday. This implies much less convection, particularly on Sunday and beyond. As high pressure continues to build over us, the Aviation model forecasts light northwesterlies at night and southeasterlies during the day a high ozone flow reversal scenario. If Debby reintensifies over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the associated circulation and subsidence would suppress convection and bring air from the Midwest and East Coast. Debby is unlikely to hit us; if it makes landfall in the western Gulf the earliest plausible day would be Tuesday.