Winds at the surface this morning are light and variable. Some stations along Galveston Bay are hinting at a land breeze, but not all of them. Profiler data shows that winds aloft are more southerly (from SSE) and weaker (5-15 kts) than yesterday. Thunderstorms have already formed early this morning, indicating that wide-spread thunderstorms will develop over the observational area later this morning and early afternoon. Extensive mid to upper level cloudiness due to the convection, and the increased vertical mixing, will hamper the production of ozone this afternoon. Background levels are moderate this morning (mid 30s ppb at Galveston), but ozone should not be above 90 ppb (hourly average) today due to the thunderstorm activity.

Max temperature lower 90s, higher well inland away from the convection and gulf breeze.

General drying trend is being produced by all models. Therefore, I do not expect as wide-spread an area of thunderstorms as today or yesterday. It is still possible that widely-scattered (less than 20% areal coverage) thunderstorms can develop in areas where the convergence along the gulf/bay breezes is maximized. Winds will continue to be on the weak side, out of the south. As long as thunderstorms stay away from the observational network area, conditions will be favorable for detecting high ozone.

Strong ridge will produce calmer winds and lessened precipitation chances through the weekend. As a result, we should see high ozone days this weekend. The weaker winds during the nighttime hours will allow land breezes to develop and allow reverse flow events to occur. Current forecasts regarding Hurricane Debby are more uncertain. A weak trough is moving towards the southeast US, and may curve Debby out away from the Gulf. We will certainly have a better idea as to Debby's chances to enter the Gulf in the next 48 hours. Should Debby indeed enter the Gulf, early next week could be good ozone days with winds turning from the NE, resulting in dirty continental air advecting over the Houston area. In addition, subsidence away from the hurricane rainbands will help to diminish whatever precipitation chances we do have early next week.