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Texas 2000 Weather Forecasting Page

Forecast discussion, Wed., Aug. 30, morning

 

Today's Update

Looks like a repeat performance of yesterday. Surface high pressure continues to drift slowly to the southwest, and the upper-level high continues to move closer to Houston. Surface winds this morning are much like yesterday morning - strong out of the West. I expect them to die off much like they did yesterday, due to friction (vertical mixing) and mixing down of weaker winds aloft. Background levels of ozone are starting off low again this morning, due to the stronger winds. However, as the winds die down, the fresh plume from the bay area will sit near the source and allow ozone values to climb rapidly in the mid-to-late afternoon. Highest values will again be found at locations nearest the bay. A sea breeze will develop again in early afternoon, which will allow the same sort of wide-spread ozone event as yesterday to happen again today. Skies will remain clear again today, and the chance of precipitation is zero.

Max temperature Near 100.

Quick Look at Tomorrow

The weather pattern is stagnant, so there will not be much change from the past couple of days. Skies will remain clear, and the chance of precipitation will be zero. Afternoon winds will also continue to be light, so I expect high ozone again tomorrow.

Multi-Day Outlook

The ridge of high pressure will continue to be anchored over us. Water vapor imagery shows little to no movement of the ridge, or of the upper-level low located over the SE US. The AVN run out to 6 days keeps the ridge pretty much where it is currently. Therefore, I expect the same conditions which have been over the area the past couple of days to persist through the next 5 days. Shower activity along the transition zone between the ridge over us and the upper-level low out to the east will continue throught the period. The models keep this area sufficiently enough to the east of us to not be of concern, however a watchful eye needs to keep monitoring this area in case the models are incorrect with the degree of stagnation of the overall pattern.

Forecaster Karl Schulze

 

 

 

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