Today is a promising day for ozone. The winds are light and there's a bit of a land breeze. Emissions should stay almost in place this morning with very light southwesterlies developing this morning, turning more southeasterly in the afternoon and stronger behind the bay and gulf breeze. Background levels are near 40 ppb. General pattern is similar to the first week of the experiment, so expect early afternoon exceedences over the ship channel area and over and north of downtown later in the afternoon.

The only fly in the ointment is the unstable airmass. There's plenty of tropical moisture around, and convection is present farther over the Gulf and to the southwest. It's not as widespread and the models persist with their drying trend, so expect showers to develop a little bit later and not hit as many spots. Earliest expected onset of thunderstorms is 11 AM. Sea breeze showers will move slowly inland; some shower development is also possible ahead of the sea breeze, particularly over the Piney Woods. Otherwise, midmorning low clouds will develop and remain scattered to broken until late afternoon.

TNRCC expects 200 or more ppb ozone levels - it could happen if the showers hold off.

Max temperature mid 90s, higher to the northeast.

General drying trend is continued by all models. Precipitable water drops below 1.5 inches, making it possible that we will be shower-free again. Atmospheric and air chemistry models predict that tomorrow will mark the onset of dirty continental air, so on the whole tomorrow is likely to be a very high ozone level day.

Saturday marks the beginning of a weather regime widely scattered showers, light winds, possible /likely flow reversals, and polluted air from the Eastern US. It appears that the regime will last at least through Tuesday, when disruption becomes more likely from the tropical remnants of Debby (or the redeveloped hurricane Debby). Unless the occasional showers happen to nail the metropolitan area, this should be several consecutive days of ozone exceedances.