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Forecast discussion, Tue., Aug. 29,
morning
Today's Update
Strong high pressure is centered just to the east of Houston this
morning. Despite the weak wind conditions, a land breeze did not
develop early this morning. Ozone background levels are again very
low by Houston standards. However, with the weak winds at the
surface and aloft due to the approaching high pressure, and the
clear skies (afternoon broken cumulus) that will result, high ozone
values are likely today in the downtown area and surface stations to
the north and northwest later this afternoon. Precipitation chances
are zero. Winds will start off light and variable, then begin to
pick up a little from the southeast early. Winds will veer with time
as the high approaches, and they will also diminish. Late in the
day, stronger winds from the southeast will develop behind the sea
breeze. Therefore, the ozone plume will not be advected very far
today. We have the best shot at developing a land breeze tonight.
Max temperature upper 90s.
Quick Look at Tomorrow
High pressure will continue to drift to the SW. Winds will
continue to be light, and with a more northwesterly component.
Today's plume should not be advected far from the area, so the day
should begin with much higher background levels. Plumes should again
remain close to the source, and a reverse-flow event should take
place.
Multi-Day Outlook
Surface high pressure will drift to the SW, and be located
offshore from Corpus Christi by Thursday. In addition, strong low
pressure currently off the eastern shores of the US will drift
westerly as well. As a result, winds should have a more northerly
component through the period, bringing in drier and dirtier air.
Precipitation chances near zero through the next 5 days.
Forecaster Karl Schulze
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